Monday, August 25, 2008

Top 5 Prime Sports Relocation/Expansion Locations

With this summer's move of the Seattle SuperSonics to Oklahoma City, the ever-present threat of a team moving away from it's fanbase has been reignited. While there aren't too many teams in as imminent of danger as the Sonics were, it is interesting to look at some possibilities of future locations for new pro sports teams or new homes for established ones. To keep things from getting too complex, I've excluded intercontinental destinations for expansion. I'm also only including the three big leagues likely to expand, the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL. Not too many rules for this list, just one man's opinion.

5) Milwaukee, WI

Metropolitan Area Population: 1.97 million

League That Should Move Here: NHL

Reasons Why: Milwaukee is a larger city than you might think. It ranks 34th out of US media markets, higher than other sports markets such as Oklahoma City, New Orleans, and Salt Lake City. However, the size is not the reason this move would make sense. Cold weather markets tend to support hockey teams far better than teams in Southern markets. One of the newer additions to the NHL, the Minnesota Wild, ranked tenth in attendance in the league. Hockey fans in the northern Midwest, bitterly cold areas of the US, have a better hockey tradition and a better tie to the game. The Wisconsin Badgers, located less than 90 minutes away, have a hockey tradition that rivals most schools. The biggest reason this move would make sense though is the quality of the fans in Wisconsin. The Green Bay Packers fanbase is downright rabid. The Milwaukee Brewers, despite being located in a much smaller market than most teams, are 9th in MLB attendance.

Reasons Why Not: Can Milwaukee support a basketball team, a baseball team, a pro football team, and a hockey team in the region? While baseball attendance is good, basketball attendance is bad (the Bucks were 22nd in the league last season). This can be disregarded a bit as hockey makes more sense in this market than basketball anyway. What cannot be disregarded is that Milwaukee has a minor league hockey team, the Milwaukee Admirals, who barely drew in the top half of the league for fans this past season. Is the interest for hockey here strong enough?

Teams That Could Be Moved Here: Nashville Predators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Phoenix Coyotes, Florida Panthers

4) San Diego, CA


Metropolitan Area Population: 2.94 million

League That Should Come Here: NBA

Reasons Why: Yes, I know the Clippers were here back in the late 70's and 80's, but things have changed. The city is one of the ten largest in the United States and like there is regional passion for baseball in the Northeast and football in the South, there is plenty of love for basketball out West. The rivalries would be fierce, especially with the nearby Lakers. While the Clippers could/should move here, I would hope that San Diego could get a less dysfunctional/cursed/poorly-run franchise. There is enough money and enough people here to easily support three pro franchises. On paper, this looks like a pretty easy decision for the NBA.

Reasons Why Not: California fans are notoriously fair-weather fans. If a team's good, they're there. If they're bad, the team can't give tickets away fast enough. Speaking of fair weather, could the team convince city's residents that they should come inside to see a game on a beautiful day in San Diego. An outdoor arena could be an interesting idea for this market. Plus the team most likely to move here, the Clippers, would draw a far more lukewarm reaction. Also, after recently funding Petco Park, would the city be willing to fund a major arena?

Teams That Could Move Here: Los Angeles Clippers, Sacramento Kings

3) San Antonio, TX/Austin, TX


Metropolitan Area Population: 1.94 million/1.59 million

League That Should Expand Here: NFL

Reasons Why: Texas loves football. It doesn't matter if it's high school, college, or pro football, if it's a pigskin and a 100 yard field, they're on it. The Dallas Cowboys are the most valuable franchise in US pro sports. With a competitive team last season, the Houston Texans have come into their own, ranking 11th in attendance last season. Football fans in Texas are passionate and many of them have money behind them to make big things happen. San Antonio and Austin are located far enough away from both of these markets (3 hours from Houston, 4 hours from Dallas) that they can easily support a pro franchise. Austin is currently the largest city in the United States without a pro franchise in any league. The San Antonio Spurs have already found plenty of success even being in a smaller market. Helping all of this is the fact that San Antonio is one of the fastest growing cities in the United States. Either of these cities would be a great candidate for an NFL expansion team, but not both at the same time. I think there would be a huge public reception in both cases. This region of Texas is prime territory for more pro sports teams.

Reasons Why Not: Could the team survive being in the shadow of two more established teams, especially during the likely lean first few years post-expansion? Does the more artistic nature of Austin dampen the non-college fans in the area and make the team less of a fit? Other than that, this seems like a pretty good fit to me.

2) Los Angeles, CA


Metropolitan Area Population: 17.76 million

League That Should Come Here: NFL

Reasons Why: The Los Angeles area (including Anaheim) has: two NHL teams, two NBA teams, two MLB teams.... and zero NFL teams. As the second largest market in the country, it only seems to make sense that the largest league would at least have some presence here. It's too big of a market for the NFL not to take advantage of it. As long as the stadium is located somewhere close to money-rich areas of town or even downtown. There is plenty of love for football in Los Angeles. USC's football team is one of the most popular teams in the city. Both the city and the NFL would benefit from having pro football return to the City of Angels.

Reasons Why Not: The third time may not be the charm. LA/Anaheim used to have two football teams, the Rams and Raiders. They both moved for various reasons including sinking attendance and old facilities. If you thought San Diego has a problem with fair weather fans, Los Angeles is twice as bad. There are almost too many choices for LA residents and unless the football team is any good, fans won't be there. Frustratingly slow local politics also don't make this as appealing of a location as you might think. Not to mention that LA already has a pro football team in the mighty USC Trojans.

1) Las Vegas, NV


Metropolitan Area Population: 1.78 million

Leagues That Should Expand Here: NBA, MLB, NFL (in that order)

Reasons Why: I think this is almost inevitable, especially for the NBA, and if one of the major leagues enters the market the rest may follow. Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing cities in the United States, with plenty of money in the area. There are plenty of wealthy young sports fans who have shown that they don't mind dropping a few hundred or thousand dollars. Tourism is a huge part of the economy and visiting fans may be inclined to check out the team's games. Season ticket sales would be strong, especially amongst casino owners looking to impress big spenders. The city itself would attract star free agents to come and play in the city itself. A move here appears imminent for the NBA. The 2007 All Star Game, Summer League, and 2008 US Olympic Basketball Training Grounds were all hosted here. It flat out makes sense, and whichever team owner ends up with a team here will be very lucky indeed. This would be a smart move for the MLB and the NFL for many of the reasons listed above, but each has their own unique problems that I'll get into in....

Reasons Why Not: Associating sports with gambling is a messy issue in American sports culture. Any team located here will have to be extra careful not to get in bed with the local casinos. The mere juxtaposition of the two will cause endless conspiracy theories. Baseball and football each have major problems potentially moving to Sin City. Baseball sells itself on tradition more than any other sport and its fans have a long history of turning away from the game at the slightest suspicion of games being fixed. Not helping this are stodgy baseball owners unwilling to break the status quo or think in unique ways. Baseball is stuck in the past, while Vegas is a younger city of the future. The NFL has a similar, albeit smaller problem associating itself with gambling. The main issue the NFL would face is one of image. The league has had a major image problem in the last few years and reputation-minded commissioner Roger Gooddell may be unwilling to put players in a situation where they're likely to get into trouble.

Teams That Could Move Here: Milwaukee Bucks, Sacramento Kings, Oakland A's

HONORABLE MENTIONS (and why they didn't make the cut):

Anaheim, CA - NBA, NFL (fair-weather fans, attendance issues, congested sports area)
Brooklyn, NY - NBA, MLB (NBA is already moving here in 2010, no baseball team could ever replace the Dodgers)
Providence, RI - MLB (it's already a little too cramped here, is the population large/interested enough?)
Seattle, WA - NBA, NHL (not enough interest in either sport, team might have a cheapened feel in replacing the old Sonics)

See you next week with a random list of my choosing.
-Alex

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